The most recent Survey USA poll in Minnesota (from Wed/Thurs/Fri of last week) shows an extremely close race: Obama/Biden, 49% and McCain/Palin, 46%. Other polls are different, of course, because polls are only a guesstimate on what the general population is thinking. Btw, I haven’t been called for any polls because I work during the day, only own a cell phone and somehow didn’t get on any lists. Nobody I work with has been polled either.

Anyway, I know Pawlenty was on Fox & Friends this morning claiming the Presidential race in Minnesota is a toss-up, and I believe that.

I voted this morning so I can go see Dungen tomorrow night at the 400 Bar. I don’t plan to watch the results come in, but I’m sure I’ll be checking the Gregberry every so often just to see where things are at.

What are your plans for watching the pundit play by play? Throwing a party? Drinking scotch by yourself in the dark?

Chris Baker’s Trifecta of Ridiculousness

1. On Tuesday this week Chris Baker of conservative talk radio station KTLK calls Barack Obama a “little bitch.”
2. On Wednesday of this week Chris Baker promotes a video of a pastor who calls Barack Obama’s mother “trash.”
3. Also on Wednesday of this week Chris Baker’s co-host Langdon Perry says Magic Johnson faked having AIDS, and Chris Baker agrees.

This woman in Lakeville today. From The Uptake:

Gayle Quinnel, a John McCain supporter says at a McCain Rally that “Obama is an Arab”. She is quickly corrected by John McCain who takes away her microphone.

Quinnel of Shakopee says she obtained the information on Obama being an Arab at “her local library” and from a pamphlet obtained at a local McCain campaign office (provided by a fellow volunteer not the campaign itself).

She has taken it upon herself to redistribute the information as widely as possible by making copies of the pamphlet and sending it to random names in the phone book.

I love how John McCain, refuting her statement, says that Barack Obama is “a decent family man, a citizen” as if Arabic people are not. Hello, fearmongering!

My antidote to that little old lady from Shakopee is this little old lady from Texas.

{seesmic_video:{“url_thumbnail”:{“value”:”http://t.seesmic.com/thumbnail/2F6Yzluwyk_th1.jpg”}”title”:{“value”:”My head, it explodes. “}”videoUri”:{“value”:”http://www.seesmic.com/video/IGcfb1Fkfn”}}}

• It seems to me that the sort of person that would go to The Shout House wouldn’t so much be the same sort of person who hangs out on Twitter, but that could just be the circles I run in. If you are on of those people, you can now follow the Shout House on Twitter: @ShoutHouseMpls.
• Also on Twitter, @barackobama_mn, if you’re into that sort of thing. Which lead me to the Minnesota Tax Plan Challenge, which will show you (very roughly) how your taxes will be affected by each presidential candidate’s plan (assuming either of them could manage to get their plan passed intact).
• Per electoral-vote.com, here’s how Barack Obama and John McCain are trending in Minnesota. Sorry, Greg, no numbers for Bob Barr. Also, pretty good (non-partisan) news summary on the front page there. Worth a daily visit.
• Twitter again: @techkaraokempls. The Tech Karaoke craze is sweeping the nation and Minneapolis is one of six chapters nationally. Next event is Friday, 9pm, at the U Otter Stop Inn. Open to all. [facebook event] [facebook group] [facebook fan page]
• At Minnov8, Court Paves Way for Publicly Owned Broadband. This is big. Not surprising that smaller, more rural communities with little access to broadband are leading this charge.

This is just fascinating. Even though the third party candidates weren’t included in this local poll, SurveyUSA is editorializing how much of an impact they could have on the election day outcomes.

Minnesota Presidential Teeter Totter Tips Toward McCain:

In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 10/02/08, 33 days from the vote, John McCain and Barack Obama finish effectively even, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria.

The nominal advantage today goes to McCain, who is atop Obama 1 percentage point, 47% to 46%, within the survey’s 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. But: Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 20 days ago, Obama is down 3 points.

How much of this is movement and how much of this is “noise” is unclear. Minnesota behaves unlike other states in some respects. Among women, there is movement to McCain, at a time when McCain is losing ground among women elsewhere. Among voters younger than Obama, there movement to McCain, at a time when Obama is consolidating support among young voters elsewhere. Among voters older than McCain, there is movement to Obama, at a time when older voters elsewhere are sticking by McCain. In Western MN, which abuts the Dakotas, there is movement to McCain. In Northeastern MN, which overhangs Michigan, there is see-sawing back to Obama.

Complicating this analysis is the emergence of a possible protest vote. 12% of Independents, 8% of young voters, 6% of men, 6% of those who almost never go to church, 5% of Conservatives and 5% of Twin Cities voters tell SurveyUSA that they will vote for neither McCain nor Obama, but rather “some other candidate.”

How much of this protest can be attributed to the failure of the U.S. House of Representatives to pass an economic recovery bill, the day before interviewing for this survey began, is unclear. Ron Paul held his campaign “convention” in Minnesota a month ago. Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are on the ballot in Minnesota. Voters who tell SurveyUSA they are for “some other candidate” also tell SurveyUSA they are likely to change their minds.

It is unclear how many actual votes will be siphoned from McCain and/or Obama on Election Day, however, polling results from the Norm Coleman / Al Franken U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, also released today by SurveyUSA, suggest the protest may be non-trivial.

Here’s Bob Barr’s new TV ad, which has a resonating message with a significant percentage of Minnesotans (if they can get past the techno pRon music):
[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=MA4LJhghi5s[/youtube]

I think the findings above prove that future polls should include Dean Barkley, Nader, Barr and other significant third party candidates.

The Minnesota Secretary of State’s website has complete results from yesterday’s primary. Warning: data porn. I thanked my polling place volunteers. Did you? Mary Lahammer on the primary’s biggest winners and losers.

If you follow the Minnesota Historical Society on Twitter, you will receive a “this day in Minnesota history” tweet and alerts about other MHS events.

While Northeast Beat the Website has been assimilated by the TC Daily Planet, Northeast Beat lives on in a Ning group! (FYI, Ning is a service providing DYI social networks.) It has 138 members at the moment.

Tom Elko at MnIndy: “McCain connected 35W bridge collapse to Palin’s pork.” Money quote from McCain: “‘Maybe if we had done it right, maybe some of that money would have gone to inspect those bridges and other bridges around the country,’ McCain said at a campaign stop in Ankeny, Iowa on Aug. 4, 2007. ‘Maybe the 200,000 people who cross that bridge every day would have been safer than spending $233 million of your tax dollars on a bridge in Alaska to an island with 50 people on it.'” Zing!

If you enjoy playing the hockey, check out pickuphockeyfinder.com. You can find games and sign up yourself/your friends/a team to play. Ice hockey (indoor), pond hockey, roller hockey, adult, youth, etc.

Opposite of hockey: Are you a surfer? Or at least interested in protecting our beaches and lakefront? Graeme Thickins is helping startup the Minnesota chapter of the Surfrider Foundation.

Webdigs is yet another local real estate brokerage. They’re pimping their use of technology/teh internets and some sort of rebate program. It’s pretty to look at. I haven’t done enough house shopping to know how their user interface compares. Also, having not done much by way of homebuying I appreciate their “How Buying Works” and “How Selling Works” info. And they have a pretty good blog going (which I’m not just saying because they linked us once).

I’m completely RNCed out, but the fallout continues. Y’all know where to go (The Uptake and MnIndy). If you need some handholding, Thinkery’s early-September archive has some most excellent aggregation of independent and MSM coverage. (Yeah, I’m rounding up a roundup. Meta!)

People fret about gas prices, wish they could get away with driving less, but not everyone is hearty, hale, and brave enough to bike. So naturally scooters are the next best thing. We are totally planning on buying a scooter next summer.

Did you know there’s a Holy Land Exhibit in Stevens Square? And that it’s 50 years old? Me neither. It’s not affiliated with the restaurant/deli/imported grocery biz.

Rhubarbarism describes for you the archetypes of Twin Cities cyclists. (Yeah, this one is ancient in internet years, but it’s still funny.)

“The unassuming gazillionaire”: The Strib’s Patent Pending blog talks to Saint Paul native Jawed Karim (PayPal and YouTube co-founder) about his latest project, Youniversity Ventures, which helps fund internet software startups founded by college students.

“If I had 4 days in St Paul…” Where Jen would eat, drink, and shop.

I’m not familiar with Big Quarters, but I want one of their “From the Home of Brown Babies and White Mothers” t-shirts (even though my dad’s the white one). Lake City Browns! w00t! Here, watch one of their music videos. (via MPLSSTPL)