Posts Tagged ‘bob barr’

Minnesota Election Polls Impacted by Third Party Candidates

This is just fascinating. Even though the third party candidates weren’t included in this local poll, SurveyUSA is editorializing how much of an impact they could have on the election day outcomes.

Minnesota Presidential Teeter Totter Tips Toward McCain:

In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 10/02/08, 33 days from the vote, John McCain and Barack Obama finish effectively even, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria.

The nominal advantage today goes to McCain, who is atop Obama 1 percentage point, 47% to 46%, within the survey’s 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. But: Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 20 days ago, Obama is down 3 points.

How much of this is movement and how much of this is “noise” is unclear. Minnesota behaves unlike other states in some respects. Among women, there is movement to McCain, at a time when McCain is losing ground among women elsewhere. Among voters younger than Obama, there movement to McCain, at a time when Obama is consolidating support among young voters elsewhere. Among voters older than McCain, there is movement to Obama, at a time when older voters elsewhere are sticking by McCain. In Western MN, which abuts the Dakotas, there is movement to McCain. In Northeastern MN, which overhangs Michigan, there is see-sawing back to Obama.

Complicating this analysis is the emergence of a possible protest vote. 12% of Independents, 8% of young voters, 6% of men, 6% of those who almost never go to church, 5% of Conservatives and 5% of Twin Cities voters tell SurveyUSA that they will vote for neither McCain nor Obama, but rather “some other candidate.”

How much of this protest can be attributed to the failure of the U.S. House of Representatives to pass an economic recovery bill, the day before interviewing for this survey began, is unclear. Ron Paul held his campaign “convention” in Minnesota a month ago. Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are on the ballot in Minnesota. Voters who tell SurveyUSA they are for “some other candidate” also tell SurveyUSA they are likely to change their minds.

It is unclear how many actual votes will be siphoned from McCain and/or Obama on Election Day, however, polling results from the Norm Coleman / Al Franken U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, also released today by SurveyUSA, suggest the protest may be non-trivial.

Here’s Bob Barr’s new TV ad, which has a resonating message with a significant percentage of Minnesotans (if they can get past the techno pRon music):
[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=MA4LJhghi5s[/youtube]

I think the findings above prove that future polls should include Dean Barkley, Nader, Barr and other significant third party candidates.

Bob Barr needs help to get on Minnesota ballot

Bob Barr for President

Flickr Image: Bob Barr for President


According to figures released August 19, Bob Barr, the official Libertarian candidate for President of the United States, only has 150 signatures on the petition to get him on the Minnesota Ballot. He’s already confirmed on the ballot in 38 states and finished or in court in 9 states. Minnesota is SO far behind.

It’s puzzling that most voters — fully 55% — say Barr should be included in the fall series of presidential debates, yet the Minnesota Libertarian party can’t seem to organize well enough to get Barr on the state ballot.

But it’s not too late — the deadline is September 9, with an internal goal of August 25 so the Secretary of State’s office can verify them.

Want to sign your name on the petition? Check the official MN Meetup group to see where they’ll be (MN State Fair today).

Mike Ferguson, the national field director of Bob Barr 2008, confirmed yesterday that Barr is coming to town sometime before and/or during the Republican National Convention. Meanwhile, there are lots of videos on YouTube if you’re wondering just who this guy is and how he differs from two choices presented to us.

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